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Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025) • Articles
Open Access

Peramalan Permintaan Roti Harian dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo di Reza Bakery

Keysa Shifa Adwitia Sitepu
Universitas Negeri Medan
Rezkya Nadilla Putri
Universitas Negeri Medan
Putri Harliana
Universitas Negeri Medan
Published: May 30, 2025 Pages: 1285-1297
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Abstract

The fluctuating daily demand at Reza Bakery leads to an imbalance between production capacity and consumer needs. This study aims to forecast the daily demand of the three best-selling bread products using the Monte Carlo simulation method: Small White Bread, Mocha Bread, and French Chocolate Bread. Sales data from April 2025 covering 30 days were used as the simulation basis. The simulation involves calculating the probability distribution of demand, generating random numbers, and mapping them to demand predictions. Results show that daily demand predictions range from 33–40 units for Small White Bread, 16–22 units for Mocha Bread, and 7–12 units for French Chocolate Bread. This method helps in formulating more efficient production strategies, with good accuracy estimates based on the match between simulation results and historical trends. The simulation offers potential to reduce overstock risks and improve operational efficiency.

Keywords:
Forecasting Bread Demand Monte Carlo Simulation Production Random Numbers
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Author Biographies
Keysa Shifa Adwitia Sitepu Universitas Negeri Medan

Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Fakultas Matematika, Universitas Negeri Medan, Kabupaten Deli Serdang, Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia.

Rezkya Nadilla Putri Universitas Negeri Medan

Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Fakultas Matematika, Universitas Negeri Medan, Kabupaten Deli Serdang, Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia.

Putri Harliana Universitas Negeri Medan

Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Fakultas Matematika, Universitas Negeri Medan, Kabupaten Deli Serdang, Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia.

How to Cite
Sitepu, K. S. A., Putri, R. N., & Harliana, P. (2025). Peramalan Permintaan Roti Harian dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo di Reza Bakery. Jurnal Indonesia : Manajemen Informatika Dan Komunikasi, 6(2), 1285-1297. https://doi.org/10.63447/jimik.v6i2.1419
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